Methodology

Total public debt (the big number)

The page updates every second on your device and re-checks the latest figures every 30 seconds.

Domestic and external debt

The projected total is split using the proportions in CBK’s latest official month (external debt is worked out the same way). Their percentage shares therefore stay fixed until CBK publishes new data.

Debt per person

Population is projected forward in the same way as debt, from KNBS figures, so both parts of the ratio are current.

Share of GDP

Annual GDP figures are spread across months using a constant monthly compound growth rate between official years, then projected forward from the latest official year at the most recent growth rate. This gives a GDP estimate for today that moves smoothly rather than jumping once a year.

Year-end projection

This assumes today’s rate of borrowing continues unchanged to the end of the year. It shows the current trajectory. It is not a forecast of government borrowing plans.

External debt by currency (Chart 4)

The amounts, in KSh, are those published by the National Treasury in the Controller of Budget’s full-year report. The five largest currencies are shown as bars; the rest are grouped as “Other” and named under the chart. The exchange-rate example applies a 10% rise in the price of the US dollar, or of every currency, to the amounts owed, holding everything else equal.

Domestic debt by instrument (Chart 5)

Treasury bonds, Treasury bills, the Central Bank of Kenya overdraft, IMF funds on-lent to the government and older debts, as published by the National Treasury in the Controller of Budget’s reports. Each date uses the report that closes it: June figures from the full-year report and March figures from the nine-month report. Where a later report revises an earlier date, the full-year figure is kept.

Effective interest rate (Chart 7)

The chart is monthly, from September 1999, when CBK’s interest data begin, to this month. Interest paid is CBK’s monthly fiscal series (domestic and foreign interest in the Revenue and Expenditure file); each month’s value is the interest paid over the 12 months to then, so every June point is that fiscal year’s full interest bill. The monthly stocks are the CBK series behind the counter, ending on today’s live figure, the same series as Chart 1; in the first months of the series the average uses the months available. Until June 2000 CBK published interest only quarterly (September, December, March and June). As with the debt series in Charts 1 to 3, the months in between are filled in a straight line and labelled interpolated; and because there is no earlier full year to build on, the months of FY 1999/2000 before June are the interest paid so far that year scaled up to a full year. Using one source for every month keeps the trend consistent. CBK records domestic interest somewhat higher than the Controller of Budget figures in Chart 6 (by about 13–18% in recent years); external interest is close in both.

CBK publishes interest a few months late. For the months after its latest figure the interest is an estimate: it moves in a straight line from CBK’s latest value to a target for the June that ends the fiscal year. The target is CBK’s own total for the previous fiscal year, grown at the rate the National Treasury budgets for (FY 2026/27 Budget against the FY 2025/26 Supplementary Budget I: domestic interest KSh 986.7 billion against KSh 883.8 billion, up 11.6%; foreign interest KSh 267.5 billion against KSh 242.8 billion, up 10.2%). Growing CBK’s figure, rather than using the Treasury total itself, keeps the estimate on the same basis as the months before it. These months are drawn dashed and marked in the downloadable data, and are replaced by CBK figures as they come out. The debt stock in the same months uses the counter’s own series, as in Charts 1 to 3.

The rate is calculated separately for domestic and external debt and for all public debt. It measures what the whole stock of debt cost, old loans and new, so it is lower than the rate on any new borrowing when rates are rising, and it is not the yield on a particular bond or bill.

The chart has three views. Interest rate is the effective rate above. After inflation subtracts CBK’s 12-month inflation rate from it (CBK’s inflation series starts in January 2005, so this view starts there); below zero, inflation is eroding the real value of what is owed faster than interest adds to it. Amount paid shows the interest paid over each 12 months in KSh, domestic and external stacked. The optional T-bill rates lines are CBK’s monthly average 91-day and 364-day Treasury bill rates (Central Bank Rates file), the cost of new short-term domestic borrowing; both CBK series are read from CBK’s website and cached for a few hours. Rates by president averages the monthly rates within each term.

Why the interest bill changed compares the latest month with CBK figures against a year earlier, for domestic and external debt separately: the part from owing more is the change in average debt × last year’s rate; the part from rates is the change in rate × this year’s average debt. The two add up exactly to the change in interest paid.

Budget deficit (Chart 8)

By default revenue here is all revenue: tax revenue (import duty, excise duty, income tax, VAT and other taxes) plus non-tax revenue (fees, dividends, appropriations-in-aid and the like), as the Treasury counts it, so the deficit is on the same basis as the Budget’s targets and is close to the year’s rise in public debt. The “Taxes only” switch leaves out non-tax revenue, showing how far spending runs ahead of what taxes and grants alone bring in. The home page’s two deficit messages use all revenue. All the items come from CBK’s Revenue and Expenditure file (government finance statistics, commitment basis), which gives each as the total so far in the fiscal year: quarterly from September 1999 to June 2000, then monthly. The site reads the file from CBK’s website and keeps it for a few hours. Each month’s value is the total over the 12 months to then (the year to date, plus last year’s total, minus last year’s year to date at the same month), so every June point is that fiscal year’s figure. Months CBK did not publish are filled in a straight line within the fiscal year, as in Charts 1 to 3; the months of FY 1999/2000 before June are the year to date scaled to a full year, and July and August 2000 take the previous year as spread evenly. GDP is the monthly series used in Chart 3, so the % of GDP view starts in December 2000.

For the months after CBK’s latest figure each item is an estimate: it moves in a straight line to the previous fiscal year’s CBK total grown at the rate the National Treasury budgets for (FY 2026/27 Budget against the FY 2025/26 Supplementary Budget I: ordinary revenue, used for tax revenue, +7.2%, total revenue, used for non-tax revenue, +6.8%, grants +9.2%, expenditure and net lending +3.9%, domestic interest +11.6%, foreign interest +10.2%), reaching it in June. These months are drawn dashed and marked in the downloadable data.

The government’s targets are the deficit (including grants) set in each year’s Budget Statement, as a share of GDP: FY 2023/24 4.4%, FY 2024/25 3.3%, FY 2025/26 4.8% and FY 2026/27 5.5%. The Treasury’s deficit counts all revenue, including non-tax revenue, so compare the targets with the “All revenue” view; with “Taxes only” the deficit runs well above the targets’ basis.

The deficit is paid for by borrowing, so the chart also gives the change in public debt over the same 12 months, compared with the deficit counting all revenue. The two are close but not equal: exchange-rate moves change the shilling value of external debt without new borrowing, and some borrowing pays for other items such as on-lending or a build-up of government cash.

Tax revenue and grants (Chart 9)

Income tax, VAT, excise duty, import duty, other taxes and grants, from the same CBK Revenue and Expenditure file. Fiscal-year GDP is the average of the monthly GDP series from July to June, as in Chart 6, so the % of GDP view starts in the first full fiscal year with GDP figures and leaves out the current, unfinished year. Each bar is the fiscal year’s June figure, the total for the year; the current year is shown faded, as the year to date at CBK’s latest month. “Other taxes” appear as a separate line from FY 2014/15.

Spending by type (Chart 10)

The seven items in CBK’s Revenue and Expenditure file (commitment basis), which add up exactly to total expenditure. Bars, the current year, the % of GDP view and the share view work as in Chart 9. Transfers to counties appear from FY 2013/14, when devolution began.

Deficit so far this fiscal year (home page)

The deficit here counts all revenue (tax, non-tax and grants), as in Chart 8’s “All revenue” view; counting only taxes and grants would overstate it by the full amount of non-tax revenue (fees, dividends and appropriations-in-aid). The full-year estimate is the June figure described above. The message rotates with the others under the counter.

Growth vs interest (Chart 11)

Calendar years. GDP comes from KNBS’s Economic Surveys as shown on CBK’s Annual GDP page, which the site reads directly, so a new year appears once CBK publishes it. Interest is CBK’s figure for the 12 months to December; average debt is the mean of the 12 monthly stocks behind the counter. The GDP deflator is nominal GDP ÷ real GDP, and its change from one year to the next is the inflation used to put the interest rate in real terms, so that it compares like with like with real growth. When the interest rate is above growth, debt grows as a share of GDP unless revenue covers more than all spending other than interest; when growth is higher, it shrinks the burden. The dashed line is where the two are equal. 2009 is left out because KNBS rebased the national accounts that year, so prices in 2009 cannot be compared with 2008.

Interest vs taxes (Chart 11, second view)

Both from CBK’s Revenue and Expenditure file (June, full-year figures; tax revenue only), against public debt as a share of GDP at the end of June, as in Chart 3. Each dot is a fiscal year, coloured by the president in office at its start.

Budget deficit vs rise in debt (Chart 12)

Both as % of fiscal-year GDP (the mean of the monthly GDP series from July to June), on the same scale, with a dashed 45° line where debt rises by exactly the deficit. The gap between them is mainly the shilling value of foreign debt moving with the exchange rate, plus arrears, loans taken over by the government and borrowing outside the budget. FY 2009/10 is left out because GDP that year straddles the KNBS rebasing.

Debt indicators vs thresholds (Chart 13)

Thresholds: the IMF–World Bank Debt Sustainability Framework for a medium debt-carrying capacity country, Kenya’s rating (present value of external debt 40% of GDP and 180% of exports; external debt service 15% of exports and 18% of revenue; present value of total public debt 55% of GDP as a benchmark), as set out in the National Treasury’s Medium Term Debt Management Strategy; the 55% of GDP debt anchor in the Public Finance Management Act (2023); and the East African Monetary Union convergence criteria (debt below 50% of GDP, deficit including grants below 3%). The three debt-stock ratios are judged on present value, as their limits are: the latest official figure from the National Treasury’s Annual Public Debt Report or the IMF–World Bank Debt Sustainability Analysis (future repayments discounted at 5% a year, so concessional loans count for less than face value). These are kept in the pv_indicators tab of IEA Kenya’s data sheet and updated when a new report is published; where two sources give a figure, the most recently published is used. The history line for those ratios is face value (debt at the end of June), which the site updates monthly, with the official present-value figures marked beside it. External debt service is the Controller of Budget’s full-year figure, so those two ratios start in the first year the site has it. Exports are goods from CBK’s monthly Foreign Trade Summary (total f.o.b., including re-exports) summed over July to June, plus services credit from CBK’s annual balance of payments statement (BPM6), half of each calendar year the fiscal year spans; where a calendar year is not yet published the nearest published year is used and the figure is marked as estimated in the data download. The IMF works in calendar years and US dollars, so its published ratios differ somewhat from these.